Welcome to Issue 23, the Michael Jordan number issue. How would MJ have gone in a running race I wonder… Anyway, the gang came back to the Grattan House studios this past fortnight so there’s plenty of podcast highlights to update in this issue, there’s plenty of news to cover from Houston, Dubai and Valencia and there’s also a deeper dive into the marathon boom rabbit hole. Enjoy.
Main Show
#80. Joel keeps his chin up while working through some tonsillitis and Brett doesn’t let his glute issue keep him from stringing some nice training together. The Izzi Batt-Doyle Interview followed.
#81. Thought provoking discussion around hitting the right paces in sessions for the right athletes along with a couple of exciting anecdotes about Joel’s week (he fell asleep when he shoudln’t have and defended a wombat). Brett ran 169.8km, and is building some nice Strava towers, and an interview with Tim Vincent followed.
Chasing Paris UK
A fortnight ago this show didn’t even exist! Now we’ve had both an intro episode and Episode #1. There’s been talk of Snooker clubs, getting on/off Strava, dietary choices in Kenya and riding on piki piki’s and in matatu’s. A lot is happening basically and with British accents coming at you from an African training camp your cultured stats will be on the rise by just listening. Listen to the rest of the series on Patreon.
Hot Takes
03 & 04. Bowerman Track Club news, Who-ston (Houston) prediction chat, Boston marathon news and some early 2024 predictions from Elise, Riley and special guest Brett across the first two episodes of 2024. The steeplechase rumour mill continued rolling too with Brett providing this context ‘me and Stewy joke about it, you get threatened with the steeple, either you do the steeple and be really good at it, or you’re so scared and you get good at another event’.
Live, Laugh, Love & Run, with Jack, Joel and Brett
#17 - Without Brett there was actually some fairly sensible discussions mixed in between JRay and Joel. Patreons were also treated, and somewhat sworn to secrecy, to not reveal Joel’s tag from his wannabe graffiti days.
Keeping updated with the results from this fortnight had me reminded of that scene in Anchorman when Luke Wilson’s character gets his only remaining arm eaten off… ‘aw c’mon! It’s getting to be ri-goddamn-diculous’. Last fortnight the new 5 km World Record by Beatrice Chebet was talk of the town. This fortnight, Agnes Ngetich ran the same time, 14:13, in the first half a 10 km to then blitz not only the previous world record in the 10 km, but also Letesenbit Gidey’s 10,000m WR! Ngetich, aged 22 years, ran 28:46 (Gidey’s mark is 29:01) and wasn’t even the only one to dip under 29 minutes for the first time ever with second place finisher Emmaculate Anyango also running 28:57. Imagine telling Anyango she’d break the World Record on the track and road and STILL lose the race!
This all happened at Valencia of course, the home of fast running as we know it. Someone needs to check if gravity or air resistance is less over there with both the 10km Men’s and Women’s world records now having been set there. In the men’s race at the same event Uganda’s Jacob Kiplimo ran a new PB of 26:48 (and his first time since 2019 on the roads in this event) to claim victory and the fifth fastest time ever. The result bodes well for Kiplimo’s Olympic ambitions of doubling in the 5000m and 10,000m at Paris while he is unsure of backing up his World XC Champs Gold from Bathurst in a few months in Belgrade. For this event in Valencia though, Kiplimo said ‘I came to Valencia to run a fast time and I just did, so I’m quite satisfied’. Do the same in Paris and I reckon he’ll be more than satisfied.
Fun fact, but not Fraser’s Fact, with the 10km records both being set in Valencia, it matches the 5km records which are both set in Barcelona AND Gidey’s half marathon record was in Valencia too. Spain is the place to be for records! That’s the major European results covered.
On the Asian continent, the Dubai marathon was almost a fortnight ago. Tigist Ketema continued the trademark Tigist thing of being a former 800-1500m specialist who switched to the marathon to run 2:16:07. This was this Tigist's debut though (fastest ever debut marathon as well) and she later told the media ‘I was quite afraid of the distance before I ran my first marathon but now, I wonder why’. What a flex. The men’s race was won by Addisu Gobena in 2:05:01, also on his debut but a bit off the pace of Kelvin Kiptum’s debut record of 2:01:53. Gobena’s claim to fame though is that he’s only 19 years old and started out as a javelin thrower.
Continuing, in the words of Daft Punk, around the world, in the America’s there was the Houston half and full marathon events. Pat Tiernan gave us what we’ve all been waiting for since he ran 2:11:02 on debut in Chicago in 2022 with his second marathon and a second Australian Olympic qualifier (2:07:45). We knew Pat was in solid form, from his sub 62 minute half in Boston in November 2023 to his third place at Zatopek. If Pat was going to qualify for Paris though he needed to pull more than just a solid points score out at Houston (his Boston result was only a lowly 1110 points, less than what Liam Adams and others on the knife edge of the Top 64 had). Heading through halfway in 63:53 Pat was just off the lead group of the race but was on pace for the qualifying time of 2:08:10. He sat on or just under the required pace for the second half before a few seconds per mile blowout in the last one and a bit miles. Didn’t matter though, for someone who’d have probably been dreaming of running his second marathon during some injury interrupted moments of 2023 (especially considering he had to pull out of last year’s World Championships) it has to be a relief for the big Queenslander to be qualified for his third Olympics and first marathon in an Australian singlet.
His result, and the other results from Dubai and Houston does mean that on the updated Road to Paris rankings Liam Adams has dropped to 66th on the list with our new adopted Aussie (for now) Phil Sesemann sitting at 65th. The Top 64 at January 30 on the Road to Paris list automatically get locked in so any hope either of those two had of qualifying via the ranking points quota is gone unless there’s some drug busts or they’re jumping in a race in the next fortnight without telling anyone…
Also in Houston, the USA’s Weini Kelati ran 66:25 for fourth place to improve the American record previously held and set by Keira D’Amato on the Gold Coast last year by twelve seconds. The winner in the female half was Ethiopia’s Sutume Asefa Kebede (64:37, new North American all-comers record) while the men’s race saw the top five all cross the line within 7 seconds of each other. Ethiopia’s Jemal Yimer Mekonnen was first in 60:42 while Wesley Kiptoo came second for the second year in a row by a second! Again…‘aw c’mon! It’s getting to be ri-goddamn-diculous’ for ol’ Kiptoo. Pre-race USA fan favourite Galen Rupp finished in 62:37 and must have all his eggs in the Orlando marathon trials basket. If Rupp had run somewhere around sub:60 then maybe he would’ve qualified within the ranking points quota. As it stands though, Australia has two spots locked in for the men and so does the USA still. Not bad for us considering we do have 300 million less people.
That’s the results for this fortnight after all of that. Let’s hope the ridiculousness hasn’t peaked for 2024 already.
Having presented the facts on the marathon boom in 2023 last issue, it’d be great to unpack them a little deeper in this issue. Poke a few holes, ask a few questions, give your noggin’s something to think about on your 30 minute solo easy run.
I’ve been thinking about it for longer than thirty minutes and tried researching it for a couple of weeks. It seems there’s just as much mystery as to how to always run your best marathon as there is to the specifics of what’s driving this marathon boom in Australia and whether it’s forecast to continue. Maybe that’s what makes both the marathon and the marathon boom such an interesting case, both are a numbers based problem but the data doesn’t always tell the story as to how things will go. There is no authority on the matter so here is a case of facts to consider.
Looking at the big picture it’s easy to identify the main factors; the effect of COVID in increasing participation in running, the effect of cost of living increases and the push for the Sydney Marathon to become a World Major.
During COVID the only exercise we were allowed to do at times was run. Within a 5km radius for some. Remove the 5km radius rule and the edict from governments was pretty much as if the God of Running made the rule so everyone would take up running. These two articles back up the impacts of COVID with both pointing to more runners than would’ve been if it weren’t for COVID. In Chris McDougall’s Born to Run the historical connection between national crisis and running booms is connected to show this isn’t a once off. ‘The first boom came during the Great Depression… only to catch fire again in the early 70’s (just see how many fast times were run in the 70’s and 80’s!) when we were struggling to recover from Vietnam, the Cold War…’. McDougall continues ‘Maybe it’s a coincidence. Or maybe there’s a trigger in the human psyche, a coded response that activates our first and greatest survival skill when we sense the raptors approaching’. Fight or flight right?
Sydney’s push for increased finisher numbers was also a big deal. Pre-pandemic, in 2019 the event only had 4492 finishers. In the first year back after the pandemic (2022) the event had 3451 finishers. In 2023 there were 13,293, almost 10,000 more! That’s the equivalent of having another almost 1.5 Gold Coast Marathon finishers. The push for participation increase in Sydney certainly came down to the increased marketing and funding in its bid to join the World Majors. The scary thing to show the return on investment for the marketing department is that those 13,293 finishers were achieved from a total of 16,742 entrants (13,801 starters). All we need to do to keep the marathon boom going next year is pray it’s not hot and smokey on September 15th 2024 and we’ll have an extra few thousand starters and hopefully finishers on top of last year’s numbers already!
Those are the big ticket factors but of course, there are others worth mentioning; the availability of super shoes on the market in the last few years, the emergence of social media video content (Instagram reels were released in 2020) and increase in access to training and running information (eg. FTK started in 2021). Quantifiable data isn’t readily available on the influence of these factors but you’re smart enough to see how if you create a product that is flashy, fast and capable of breaking a World Record (super shoes), whack it and similar content into an easily available video with music and cool effects (reels, Youtube videos) and then, subliminally message us through podcasts and Youtube content with greater access to elite training data, it’s hard to not to get sucked up by it all. Of course I want to run a marathon if it all looks like so much fun! Put some pretty boys and girls who look like they’re living the dream in a training montage and I want in on that action! Screw playing footy, give me the marathon!
While the major factors kickstarted the recent boom in Australia, the minor factors are the ones driving the growth. Participation will keep growing in 2024 and beyond because Instagram, podcasts and bright flashy shoes aren’t going anywhere. The game for race directors, councils and event managers is to get ahead of the boom and ensure we have the right capacity limits and maintain a positive experience for all runners. The momentum behind this boom could be lost any second with a poor race experience or serious mishap. Running fans need to look no further than Falls Festival which went through some challenging years post the 2016 crowd crush to eventually be cancelled for 2023.
With the negatives considered, let’s finish on a positive outlook. 2024 could be the first year Australia has over 40,000 marathon performances. Why not aim for 50,000 or even 100,000 by 2030? That’s only one MCG’s worth of people and that many head there every weekend in winter. The more people who are capable of running a marathon in this country, the less indirect and direct health costs we face as a nation. So, like any good tech start-up, let’s hope the growth of marathon running continues sustainably into 2024.
Beatrice Chebet, now the equal 5 km world record holder, was ‘satisfied with my (her) Spanish tour’ after she won a Gold label Cross Country race in Elgoibar. I would be too if I ran a World Record one week and 26:08 for 7.62 km the next. Berihu Aregawi won the men’s race. Both will be lining up at World Cross in a few months… early favourites maybe?
Jakob Ingebritsen is out of the World Indoors Championships with achilles soreness. Maybe he’s also looking to take the underdog card into the Olympics by not racing as much in the first half of the year?
Kelvin Kiptum promised to knock down the 2 hour barrier in Rotterdam on 14th April with this ambitious training plan posted on Facebook.
Athletics Australia announced the team of athletes to represent the UniRoos at the World University Cross Country Championships in a month's time. Four ladies were selected for the 10km (including Grattan House’s own Saskia Lloyd), four males in the 10km and Will Lewis will be in the 3km. My money’s on Will to be the highest placed Aussie in his event.
The other news from Albert Park HQ (AA) was that 7plus will again be carrying coverage of the Chemist Warehouse Summer Series and the 2023 Athletics Australia Award winners were announced. Cam Myers and Dick Telford won Male Junior Athlete and Coach (Juniors) of the Year respectively. Every other award was to some sprinter or field eventer (AKA not TBL worthy).
Addison Gobena winning the Dubai Marathon at just 19 years of age opened the door into exploring what the fastest times for an Australian 19 year old is.
On the female side of things, Meriem Daoui ran 2:52:49 to win the Cadbury Marathon in 2019 just two days before her 20th birthday to hold the women’s record.
The men’s record is held by Gerard Barrett who debuted with 2:24:15 in Brisbane in 1976. This record is impressive too for its longevity. It’s the second oldest age-related record. The 18 yr old age group record (2:28:08, David Eltringham) is the oldest record being set in Perth in 1973.
The interesting-ness doesn’t stop there though. Gerard ran his 2:24 to win the Queensland Champs in 1976. Then, two years later, ran 2:12:20 to win the title again, then two years later won the Olympic Trial race in 2:11:42 (which was his PB and a time that beat Rob de Castella who was the same age in that very race) before unfortunately recording a DNF at the Moscow Olympics. After that, the results are a bit murky but it looks like Gerard disappeared then reappeared to win Canberra Marathon in 1988, 1992 and 1993 to finish off on a positive note.
February 4th: Marugame International Half Marathon. Watch for Mr.TWHSOITWTWATSA (... Tim Vincent), Ryan Gregson and Brett.
February 10: Adelaide Invitational (next Chemist Warehouse Open event). Buy tickets here.
February 15: Maurie Plant Meet. Australia’s only ‘World Athletics Continental Tour Gold Meet’. Buy tickets here. Peter Bol was announced as a starter in the John Landy Mile along with Cam Myers, Jye Edwards, Sam Tanner (NZL) and Eliud Kipsang (KEN). They of course add to the list which already included Jake Wightman and Stewy McSweyn.
February 19: The rescheduled live show at Runner’s Paradise. With Special guest Stewy McSweyn.
This division of Grattan House welcomes any and all reader feedback. If you want more or less of something, want something investigated, or Jordy Williamsz hasn’t dealt with your complaint in a timely manner, please enquire at theblueline@grattanhouse.com.